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- JD Vance's lame efforts can't distract from Iran
JD Vance's lame efforts can't distract from Iran
Trump invites humiliation by pretending to be tough


Treat yourself by mocking Karoline Leavitt
Like most of you, I was reeling on Saturday when Donald Trump made the frankly impulsive decision to bomb Iran’s nuclear facilities. He’s pulling a George W. Bush “mission accomplished” move, and we all know how well that worked out last time. Most of this newsletter is about Iran and what happens next.
But I also want readers to take a couple of minutes to treat themselves with this look at Karoline Leavitt, and why she’s so annoying. I go deeper than the glib “because she sucks” tautologies offered on social media and look at the way Leavitt almost seems designed in a lab to irritate feminists. That is, I argue, the point. So take a small break from depressing war news to have some fun at her expense. You deserve it.

Trump’s narcissism may not allow him to back away from Iran
Trump looked like he was sucking eggs during his announcement of the Iran bombing Saturday night, and we can say with absolute certainty that wasn’t because he was feeling the moral weight of war. As we covered in the latest episode of “Standing Room Only,” Trump’s decision-making is entirely driven by narcissism. He doesn’t care about evidence, strategy or goals, much less about doing what’s right. He only cares about what will maximize his power and boost his ego. He tries to figure out what he thinks will wow the people he wants to impress — whether that means foreign right-wing leaders like Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu or the chattering redhats on X — and that’s what he’ll do.
The dilemma for narcissists arises when they can’t get a handle on what decision will accomplish the goal of trying to impress people. The MAGA world was truly at odds over war with Iran. Steve Bannon, Tucker Carlson and even Charlie Kirk were worried, for good reason, that war with Iran would end in humiliation for Trump that would destabilize his coalition. The saber-rattlers wanted Trump to believe that he’d be emasculated if he backed down. He’s got the maturity of an especially dim 3-year-old, so of course “don’t be a pussy” won the day.
As usual, Trump is more worried about having it both ways with public opinion than anything else. That’s why Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio are attempting to placate both sides of the MAGA movement with reassurances that this was a bloodless victory, the U.S. is not going to war and the whole thing is essentially over. But it sure sounds like Trump got more “only dumb girls hate war” phone calls, because now he’s on Truth Social screeching about “regime change” in Iran, which is just a euphemism for U.S. invasion and occupation.
So no, I don’t think this is over. But in his efforts to show how tough he is, Trump risks getting sucked into a quagmire that will only expose how weak he is. His base will go along for now, I suspect, but their unease about this isn’t going away.
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Triggering the liberals won’t distract from Iran
Vance seems worried about the intra-MAGA arguing over Iran. I suspect that’s why, right in the middle of an international crisis, the vice president decided there was no time like the present to launch a troll account on Bluesky. The results were a mixed bag. He was temporarily suspended, which got the incels on Twitter so excited that many jumped out of their testicle-tanners. Unfortunately, a few thousand liberals on Bluesky took the bait, serving Vance with angry responses that he can brandish before the MAGA base as proof he’s still got enough juice to trigger the libs.
Most people, however, just blocked Vance — because they understood the game he was playing. It’s a pathetic bid to distract the MAGA base from Trump’s bat-brained urge to go to war with Iran. Vance is trying to remind Trump supporters what they have in common, which is that they hate liberals and love to make them cry. Perhaps if they’re reminded that goal No. 1 is always “liberal tears,” they’ll work their way around to supporting a brand-new war with Iran. After all, nothing triggers the libs like war!
It’s not hard to detect the stink of desperation behind Vance’s move. As of this writing, he hasn’t posted on Bluesky again. That probably isn’t because he’s too busy veeping, but because it isn’t working. Even by the basement-low standards of MAGA, bombing Iran is too big a story for the true believers to be easily diverted, even by their beloved pastime of yelling at liberals online.
I don’t want to get too optimistic about this. The past is a prelude. Now that Trump has decided to attack Iran, it’s a good bet that even the most outspoken Republicans who opposed war will find some way to back him. Still, Vance’s lame maneuver makes clear that he’s worried. Lots of younger men swung right in 2024 because they believed the lie that Trump was against war. Many of those guys may drift away now, and won’t easily be won back just because of Vance’s antics.
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What we're reading this week
“‘I Feel Like I’ve Been Lied To’: When a Measles Outbreak Hits Home,” Eli Saslow and Erin Schaff, New York Times
“Democrats should try to be more interesting — not more centrist,” Perry Bacon, Washington Post
“If You Thought Donald Trump Would Never Do This, You’re an Idiot,” Michael Tomasky, New Republic
“Democrats' 'Distraction' Trope Reaches The End Of The Line,” Brian Beutler, Off Message
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